Thursday, November 5, 2015

US NFP: Additional factors to keep your eye on - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, list down the additional factors which the investors must keep their eye on while taking in account the US NFP data.

Key Quotes

Four-week vs five-week survey interval: The upcoming employment report will have five weeks between the October and September survey reference weeks. Although the BLS has taken measures to smooth out the variation, we noted in previous research that the variation in the number of weeks between survey periods biased payrolls upwards for the month of April. The same analysis for October suggests that it should have a limited impact.

Average hourly earnings: We expect average hourly earnings to rebound in October following a flat reading in September. As such, we forecast that average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% m-o-m in October. This translates into a year-over-year change rate of 2.3%, modestly higher than the prior month’s y-o-y reading of 2.2%, in line with our expectations for wages to gradually pick up.

Aggregate hours worked: This is the first hard data on US output for October. In September, this index declined by 0.2% m-o-m, a signal that economic activity slowed at the end of Q3. We will watch this indicator closely to see whether or not the momentum in the US economy is shifting to a lower gear.”
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