Tuesday, November 24, 2015

USD bulls take a breather in Asia, Ifo, BOE Carney - Key

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The calm was spread across Asia after a volatile previous session, with lack of fresh fundamental triggers. The greenback eased-off multi-month highs and corrected lower, and thus, weighed on the USD/JPY pair. While Antipodes attempted minor recovery after the commodity rout-backed sell-off.

Key headlines in Asia

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI above expectations (52.1) in November: Actual (52.8)

US GDP forecast of 2.5% in 2015 - S&P

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

The US dollar was broadly sold-off after markets were left unimpressed by the US factories data and a non-event Fed decision on the discount rates. The recent US preliminary manufacturing PMI reading from Markit came in at 52.6 in Nov, compared to the 54.1 seen in October. Markets had predicted the gauge to hit 54.0.

As a result, USD/JPY suffered this session, extending the decline from 123 handle to 122.75 levels, where it now wavers. More so, the Japanese yen regained lost control and trades near weekly highs after the sentiment soured on the Asian equities on lower commodity prices. While upbeat Japan’s manufacturing data also aided the recovery in the yen. The Nikkei-Markit Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.4 in October to a 52.8 in Nov, reaching the highest level since March 2014.

On the flip side, both Antipodeans reversed yesterday’s heavy sell-off and attempted tepid-bounce in Asia. However, the recovery appears short-lived as unfavourable risk-sentiment and ongoing weakness in the commodity prices continue to weigh on investors’ moods. The Kiwi trades modestly flat at 0.6515, while the Aussie hovers below 0.7200 levels, with the bulls struggling to extend gains beyond the last.

The Asian stocks trade mostly lower, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei now reversing the losses and inching slightly higher near 19,920. While mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite keeps the red, down -0.76% at 3,583 points. Australia’s S&P ASX index extends losses towards close and drops -0.75% to 5,236. While Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declines -0.75% to 22,497.

Heading into Europe & the US

A busy European session ahead, with the German Ifo business climate survey and inflation report hearing from the UK to emerge the main market movers.

The closely watched Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany is expected to edge down to 108.0 in November, from the 108.2 booked last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen at 112.2 from the 112.6 booked a month ago. The Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - is expected to remain at the same level as 103.8 registered in October.

Germany will report final GDP growth figures for Q3, expected to show 0.3% growth, quarter-on-quarter, and 1.8% on an annual basis.

Bank of England Governor (BOE) Mark Carney is scheduled to testify to UK legislators on the Treasury Committee about the central bank's latest Inflation report.

ECB Banking Supervision Chair Daniele Nouy and ECB board member Yves Mersch are due to speak at their respective events while RBA Chief Stevens’ will also deliver a speech about issues in economic policy at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney.

Looking towards the NA session, the main risk event is expected to be the prelim US GDP figures. While US goods trade balance and consumer confidence data will also garner some attention. Markets are predicting a 2% annualized increase in the GDP will be reported.

BAML Research Team noted, "Instead of a 1.4 percentage point drag on Q3 growth, inventories will likely have a negative contribution closer to 0.8 percentage point."

EUR/USD Technicals

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet noted, “The 1 hour chart showing that the price is being contained by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator is hovering around its 100 level and the RSI indicator turned back south after a limited upward correction. In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended its decline further below a flat 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator maintains a strong bearish slope below its 100 level, while the RSI remains around 35, in line with further declines for this Tuesday. Support levels: 1.0590 1.0550 1.0510 Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0690 1.0730.”
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