Wednesday, November 25, 2015

US: Hectic day ahead of Thanksgiving - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that it will be a very busy day for data as the release dates on several reports have been moved forward in observance of US Thanksgiving.

Key Quotes

“The October data for personal income and outlays and durable goods orders will be the highlights. We are looking for personal spending to accelerate from +0.1% to +0.3% m/m (in line with consensus), supported by a 0.5% monthly gain in personal income (consensus: +0.4%).”

“Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure of price pressures) is expected to print at +0.1% m/m (in line with consensus), with the year-ago pace of inflation edging higher from +1.3% to +1.4%. We are looking for a firm rebound in durable goods orders at +2.1% m/m thanks to strength in the aerospace component (consensus: +1.6%), though the ex. transport number should still be modestly positive (TD: +0.8% m/m, consensus: +0.3% m/m) which will bode well for business investment.”

“There will also be a slew of lower-tier releases, including initial jobless claims for the third week of November and the October new home sales data. We are looking for jobless claims to pop higher from 271K to 282K (consensus: 270K) which will see the 4-week moving average rise from 271K to 276K, while we are forecasting a 3.8% rebound in new home sales to 486K (consensus: 500K).”

“Lastly, we will be watching the U. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (TD: 92.4, consensus: 93.1) following the very soft reading on the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment measure.”
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