Monday, November 23, 2015

German PMI preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair is trading around Friday’s low at 1.0620 after having clocked a session low of 1.06 in Asia. The immediate focus now is on the preliminary November German PMI report due later today.

Focus on new orders index

The headline manufacturing PMI figure is seen unchanged at October’s 52.1, while the services PMI is seen slowing to 54.3 from 54.5. More than the headline figure the markets would be interested to see if the new work under manufacturing and services sector ticked higher in November.

Germany’s export machinery has slowed down considerably on account of a slowdown in China. So the odds of a drop in the new export orders could be seen. Traders would also see how price pressures played out in November; given the drop in crude prices.

A strong data may end having little or no impact on the pair, given the expectations of more ECB easing on Dec 3rd and the high probability of the Fed liftoff in December.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

At 1.0620, the pair could re-test 1.0671 (hourly 100-MA) if the German PMI blows past expectations. Above 1.0671, the pair could test offers at 1.0-1.0705 (hourly 200-MA). On the other hand, the pair could drop to 1.0580 (Trend line support- Nov 6 low to Nov 18 low) on a weaker-than-expected figure. A break below the same would open the doors will be opened for a re-test of the yearly low 1.0463.
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