Monday, November 23, 2015

NZ: October trade balance expectations – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, expects the NZ trade balance to print a figure of NZ$1100mn, against the market consensus of $NZ1000mn and as compared to its previous reading of NZ$1222mn.

Key Quotes

“New Zealand trade balance deteriorated to a deficit of NZ$1222mn in September, a larger deficit than expected (BBG:deficit of NZ$825mn). On a three-month basis, the deficit reached NZ$3.0bn – the largest since Oct 2008. Dairy export earnings reduced in September, with lower auction volumes more than offsetting the rebound in auction prices over the past two months. Nonetheless, ex-dairy exports continue to rise led by meat and fruit, and import growth remains steady (particularly in consumer goods imports).

Looking to October, we expect the dairy price rebound in the previous months to continue to be reflected in the trade accounts. On the imports side, we note that the September fall in imports was led by a reduction in the lumpy and volatile aircraft imports and this may partly revert in the October accounts.
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