Thursday, November 5, 2015

IMF decision on CNY inclusion in SDR basket to come on 30th November – Rabobank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, notes that the IMF will be announcing if China is in or out of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket on 30 November, a few weeks later than had been expected.

Key Quotes

“There is no stated reason for the delay, but my view is that this is to try to thrash out how CNY can be ‘in’ while also recognising that this will not mean a lot for quite some time. Besides the fact that the actual “live date” is still likely to be September 2016, there are a slew of financial reforms China will need to introduce before SDR status will carry any effective weight. (Most importantly, what quality, liquid financial assets will be available for central bank CNY holders to keep their reserves in? The cupboard seems quite bare for now.)”

“Fathom Financial Consulting are expecting the PBoC to cut rates to zero and then switch to QE (as am I). However, they are expecting a 25% devaluation of the currency to around the 8 level (whereas I think 7.75 is the low).”
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