Wednesday, November 4, 2015

RBA: Another rate cut expected in Q1 2016 - HSBC

FXStreet (Bali) - Low inflation in Australia, coupled with Tuesday's RBA monetary policy statement - more dovish - means that Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand at HSBC, now expects another cut by the RBA in Q1 2016.

Key Quotes

"The RBA seems comfortable that there will be sufficient momentum in the local economy to keep inflation on target, despite the downside surprise in the Q3 numbers. The postmeeting statement pointed to the recent lift in timely indicators, such as the NAB survey of business conditions, employment growth and credit."

"The RBA’s quarterly official statement, which is due to be published on Friday (6 November), will provide an update on the central bank’s growth, inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. Today’s brief comments from the central bank suggest they are likely to revise their inflation forecasts down, but leave the growth and unemployment rate forecasts unchanged."

"Like the RBA, we also remain optimistic on growth, but given the low starting point for underlying inflation we think the RBA may struggle to keep inflation on target without extra stimulus."

"However, with the RBA choosing to be patient today, it now seems unlikely that they would cut this year. The RBA’s next and final meeting for the year is on 1 December, which is before the highly uncertain Federal Reserve meeting on 15/16 December. We also get little new critical information on the Australian economy before then, with Q3 GDP due on 2 December and the next CPI print not until 27 January 2016. The next likely opportunity for a cut is therefore the 2 February meeting. We expect the RBA to cut to 1.75% in Q1 2016 (previously Q4 2015)."
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