Monday, November 2, 2015

Key events for the week – Rabobank

FXStreet (Delhi) - Michael Every, Research analyst at Rabbank, notes down the key events for the week ahead.

Key Quotes

“Today has already seen Aussie building approvals, which rose 2.2% m-o-m and 21.4% y-o-y. Next up we have the Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which is seen at 47.6, up from 47.2, and so potentially offering a little superficial succor after the limp official measures. In the UK and US we then see manufacturing PMIs (expected at 54.0 and 50.0 for the ISM, respectively): expect the latter to have the biggest influence today, especially if it matches China in going under 50.”

“Tomorrow has the RBA rate decision, where the survey of analysts overall expects no change, but with 12 of 29 asked looking for a 25bp cut. It is a hard call given soft Q3 CPI, the global backdrop, rising mortgage rates, and the subsequent release of the Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), where all can be explained to the public. We also see US factory orders and hear from Mr. Draghi.”

“Wednesday has Kiwi unemployment and wages, Aussie trade and retail sales data, Asian services PMIs (including the Caixin in China), the Fed’s Brainard speaks, and then we see US ADP employment and trade balance data ahead of the ISM services survey. We finish with the Fed’s Dudley talking on the economy.”

“Thursday has a speech from the RBA’s Stevens, the BOJ’s last set of minutes, the Fed’s Fischer talking to the National Economists Club (I bet that is a hot ticket), and then German factory orders and the BOE rate decision alongside its inflation report. In the US we have unit labor costs and former Fed chair Bernanke tries to sell his book gives the keynote speech at the IMF conference.”

“Friday has the RBA’s SoMP, a BOJ Kuroda speech, German and UK industrial production, and then US payrolls, followed by Bullard on the economy and Brainard on monetary policy.”
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