Monday, November 23, 2015

Dollar positioning nearing highs from Q1 - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - According to the IMM data for the week ended November 17, and reported by Nomura, non-commercial accounts bought $8.2bn USD, bringing positioning to $46.4bn.

Key Quotes

While our real-time estimate suggests that there has been $0.1bn of USD selling since, USD is still near the most net long it has been since April. Net longs are now roughly 83% of the maximum level reached in January of this year.

Specs sold $2.7bn of EUR on the week ended Tuesday and an estimated $0.3bn since, bringing net positioning to -$22.1bn. This is the most net short since June and roughly 73% of the short level from March, when positioning reached a local low.

AUD shorts increased by $1.0bn on the week ended Tuesday, bringing positioning to -$4.7bn, the most net short since March. However, we estimate that non-commercial accounts re-bought $0.6bn, cutting positioning to -$4.1bn.

Specs sold JPY to the tune of $1.2bn on the week. Official positioning as of Tuesday was -$8.0bn, and estimated positioning as of Friday’s close was -$8.2bn
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