Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Aussie retails preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been on the better performers of late, despite a set-back earlier as market juggle with what the RBA might intend for the interest rate before the year is out. Data will be key leading into the next RBA meeting after the statement yesterday that was released. The price struggles in the vicinity of the 0.72 handle currently as we await the retail sales figure today.

Aussie retails expected no change from previous

Aussie retails sales is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it is considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy.


For August, the trend estimate rose 0.2% in August 2015. This follows a rise of 0.3% in July 2015 and a rise of 0.3% in June 2015. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in August 2015. This follows a fall of 0.1% in July 2015 and a rise of 0.6% in June 2015. In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 4.3% in August 2015 compared with August 2014.

The following industries rose in trend terms in August 2015: Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), Food retailing (0.1%), Household goods retailing (0.2%), Department stores (0.4%) and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.1%).

A divergence either way from the previous could influence AUD/USD as a key component to the performance of the economy and something the RBA will be monitoring closely while in their recent statement Stevens left the door open for further easing, but also noted that “prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little.” The RBA will be voiced again with the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday while we await the next policy meeting is December 1st.

Key levels in AUD/USD to monitor

Technically, AUD/USD has used the key 55 day moving average at 0.7141 as a foundation to pick up again into the higher bracket of the same handle again after topping out on the 0.72 handle and unable to break up convincingly since. The 0.7385 Fibo retracement of the 2014-2015 downtrend and early October highs are key resistance keeping a bearish theme into the price. To the downside, 0.7066 is key on a break below the 0.71 handle. This area of support guards the medium term target for the September lows at 0.6940 with 0.6774 2004 low on the wide.
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