Monday, November 16, 2015

This week's data preview - Nomura

FXStreet (Guatemala) - In addition to the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, key consumer price, housing, and manufacturing data will be released.

Key Quotes:

Empire State Survey (Monday): The Empire State manufacturing report remained weak in October, likely due to lingering concerns over slower global growth prospects, the strong dollar, and low energy prices. Given that these factors are still a concern, we expect manufacturing sentiment to remain pessimistic in the NY region in November. In addition, the orders subindexes within the report deteriorated further in October, suggesting that activity is unlikely to pick up in the near term. As such, we expect the headline index within this manufacturing survey to remain negative, at -8.5 in November.

Weekly chain store sales (Tuesday): The first half of November tends to be relatively quiet for retail activity, as a lot of holiday shopping starts in earnest after Thanksgiving. But we could see a modest boost in the upcoming report due to Veterans Day.

CPI (Tuesday): Both headline and core CPI were modestly stronger than expected in September due to acceleration in prices for food and rent-related items. Given the tightening in labor markets, higher wages in the healthcare sector and continued declines in the vacancy rate of rental houses, we continue to expect a gradual pick-up in core inflation in the medium term. We expect a 0.18% m-o-m (+1.9% y-o-y) gain in core CPI in October. We expect a slight uptick in energy prices in the October CPI. As such, we expect headline prices to rise by 0.17% m-o-m (+0.1% y-o-y).

Industrial production (Tuesday): Regional manufacturing surveys were mostly weak again in October; however, the ISM manufacturing survey, which provides a measure of national manufacturing sentiment, declined only slightly on the month and the Chicago PMI surprised to the upside. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that aggregate hours worked in manufacturing rose in October. As such, we expect an increase in manufacturing production in October. Based on the BLS aggregate hours worked in mining, we forecast that mining production was roughly unchanged. We also expect little change in vehicle production again in October. Weekly utility output data point to a decline in utilities production in October, possibly due to a warmer-than-usual October and thus less heating demand. Taking all these inputs into consideration, we believe industrial production declined by 0.1% in October following its 0.2% fall in September."
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