Monday, November 16, 2015

NZ retails sales could boost GDP Q3 expectations - ANZ

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ explained that a number of offsetting forces shape the consumer spending outlook in New Zealand.

Key Quotes:

"Solid net wealth gains, low interest rates and strong population growth are clear supports. However, this is will be moderated to a degree by a softer labour market and weaker rural incomes. Modest, but respectable, spending growth is expected to persist.

Retail sales were boosted by a strong lift in vehicle spending in Q3, and from a regional perspective, outperformance is following housing market strength (led by Auckland, Waikato and the regional North and South Island). Today’s results provide some modest upside risk to our current 0.5% q/q expectations for Q3 GDP.

At 1.6% q/q, the lift today was slightly stronger than expected. While quarterly retail sales volumes have been volatile of late (today’s result follows a soft Q2, but strong Q1), a respectable underlying trend exists (0.9% q/q).

Compositionally, the lift was led by durables. Motor vehicle spending in particular surged 5.0% q/q. Electrical goods spending was also strong. Stripping out motor vehicle relating spending, core spending was up 1.0% q/q. Overall, 10 of 15 industries recorded higher sales volumes over the quarter.

Regionally, strength appears to be following housing markets. Solid (nominal) gains were seen in Auckland, Waikato and regional North and South Island. Q3 spending fell in Wellington and Canterbury.

Today’s result suggests some upside risk to our current 0.5% q/q Q3 GDP growth expectations, with a solid contribution from the broader services sector likely."
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