Monday, November 23, 2015

Week ahead: Short US week, still plenty of data - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - David Fritz, FX Strategist at Nomura, provides a preview of this Week’s headline events, in which we will see a short US week, although still with plent of data to be published, including the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the US.

Key Quotes

"This week, there will be the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, but there will still be plenty of data released both in the US and elsewhere that can move the market."

"For the US, the headlines may be about the second estimate of Q3 GDP, where we expect the data to show growth of 2.4%, compared with expectations by the market of 2.1% and a first estimate of 1.5%. The upward revision is primarily due to stronger-than-assumed inventory investment."

"Other data next week include housing, which has been a bright spot of the economy, although the pace of sales may slow going forward based on pending homes sales, which tend to lead the existing homes sales index. Durable goods, personal income and spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and new home sales will all be released on Wednesday, before the markets break for Thanksgiving."

"Previously reported data on manufacturing and production suggest that manufacturing activity could stabilize soon, and, given the data, our economists expect durable goods orders to have risen by 1.6% in October. Personal income likely grew at a strong pace in October, based on NFP growth during the month, with our economists looking for a 0.6% rise."

"Eurozone PMIs will be released on Monday, and the German IFO will be released Tuesday. This should give further indication of the economic progress in the region. We expect the euro area composite PMIs to fall slightly, driven by a marginal decline in the services sector, while manufacturing remains roughly constant."

"An outcome in line with our expectations would take the average of the composite PMI for October and November to a level historically consistent with 0.4% q-o-q GDP growth in Q4, slightly stronger than our current tracking estimate of 0.3% q-o-q; see Euro area Q4 GDP tracker: 0.3% q-o-q (after flash 0.3% in Q3) 13 November 2015."

"A tepid recovery is unlikely to boost inflation expectations, and our view is that the ECB will have to ease further at the December meeting. Specifically, we expect a 10bp deposit rate cut in addition to QE extension to “end June 2017, or beyond”.

"The BOJ minutes for the October 30 meeting will be released on Tuesday night. The BOJ left its policy unchanged at the meeting, which was a surprise to some who expected additional easing, and the minutes should clarify the reasoning behind the decision. Comments from Governor Kuroda suggest that there is limited likelihood of imminent easing, given his relatively optimistic outlook for Japan."

"There will also be CPI data from Japan released on Thursday night. This is expected to show a decline of 0.1% y-o-y, the same as for September."
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