Thursday, November 12, 2015

Visible signs that global economic slowdown is easing - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, notes that there are visible signs that the global economic slowdown is easing and lists down the factors supporting the cause.

Key Quotes

Signs emerging economy growth has bottomed, partly as a result of pickup in Chinese imports: With the manufacturing PMI for emerging economies rebounding in October, we see signs that the slowdown in emerging economies, which was one of the main factors behind the global economic slowdown, is finally drawing to a close. Our first reason for this view is that the slowdown in China is showing signs of easing. Chinese imports, which in real terms declined y-y in H1 of this year, have turned positive in H2.

Negative impact of currency depreciation has faded and trade volume has begun to recover in the past two or three months: An easing of the negative impact of the major currency depreciation experienced by many emerging economies also suggests to us that the economic slowdown in emerging economies is easing. As a result of the currency depreciation experienced by many economies other than the US, the global economy began to shrink in dollar terms at the start of this year. In the past two or three months, however, trade volume has picked up again. We think the recovery in exports is likely to continue.

Recovery in emerging economies is likely to gather momentum: Other factors that have contributed to an easing of the slowdown in emerging economies include an easing of the decline in commodity prices and the firmness of the economic recovery (and especially private consumption) in the US. The recovery in emerging economies has only just begun and the rate of recovery is likely to depend on the timing of an interest rate increase in the US as well as on what happens to the US and Chinese economies. However, we think that the recovery is slowly under way. As a result, we expect Japanese exporters and the overseas operations of Japanese companies to benefit.”
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