Friday, November 6, 2015

USD playbook for October Non-Farm Payrolls – RBS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Brian Daingerfield, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, suggests that our trading desk economists are above the listed consensus, anticipating a 205K rise in October non-farm payrolls.

Key Quotes

“Importantly, our economists forecast average hourly earnings growth at 0.3% m/m in October, which may be enough to push the y/y growth rate to 2.3% y/y, or even to 2.4% y/y, which would be the highest since 2009, though still well below pre-crisis norms.”

“Most other indicators of employment, including the ISM indices, the ADP employment report, and initial jobless claims, showed few signs of deterioration over the past few months despite the clear slowing in headline NFP gains in August and September relative to the prevailing trend. That is among the factors that leave our economists seeing risks to our already above-consensus stance on the upside.”
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