Friday, November 13, 2015

US retail sales preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD index is mildly positive, with the EUR/USD pair hovering near 1.08 levels ahead of the US retail sales figure, which is expected to show a rebound in the household spending in October.

USD bears need a negative retail sales print

The retail sales are expected to come-in at 0.3% from September’s 0.1%. The core retail sales are also expected to rise month-on-month. So long as the number is in the positive territory, the USD bulls could remain happy. A weaker-than-expected figure, but above 0.0% could lead to a minor correction in the USD and therefore a rise in the EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, the markets believe the Fed has made up its mind to move rates in December and the debate now is over the size of the lift-off (25bps or less than 25bps). Hence, it would take a horribly weak number to cheer the USD bears. In case the retail sales print well below 0.0%, the EUR/USD could spike to 1.09 handle.

On the other hand, a better-than-expected figure could trigger another weekend rally in the USD. The EUR/USD could revisit its daily lows in this case.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

At 1.08, the immediate resistance and support is seen at 1.0810 (hourly 200-MA) and 1.0760 (hourly 50-MA). Above 1.0810, the pair could make a run at 1.0828 (10-DMA), which is followed by a hurdle at 1.0844 (Nov 4 low). A break above would open doors for a rise to 1.09. On the other side, a break below 1.0760-1.0758 (76.4% of Mar-Aug rally) would expose support zone of 1.0680-1.07, under which the pair could test 1.0675 (Nov 10 low).
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