FXStreet (Bali) - This week’s focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and October’s CPI and industrial production data, notes the Economics Team at BNP Paribas.
Key Quotes
At their last meeting, most FOMC participants probably saw the data published since the previous meeting as consistent with a rate rise before the end of the year. The minutes from October’s meeting should indicate that the Fed’s baseline forecast remained on track and that downside risks, particularly the external ones, had been reduced. We expect a hawkish but careful tone that underscores the FOMC’s decision to signal in its policy statement that a rate hike is potentially imminent. In light of October’s strong jobs report, the minutes should reinforce the high likelihood of a December rate hike. The minutes could also shed more light on the pace of hikes, which is likely to be determined by both realised and expected progress.
On the data front, we project headline inflation to have stayed low in October (rising to 0.1% y/y from 0.0% in September) while core inflation is projected to have held steady (1.9% y/y). Monthon-month, headline prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, reflecting moderate increases in core and food prices, which are likely to have more than offset a fall in motor fuel prices.
Industrial production, meanwhile, is expected to have fallen 0.4% m/m in October. Auto production was probably soft, looking at auto makers’ production schedules, but excluding autos, manufacturing is likely to have picked up modestly. However, electricity output data suggest weakness in utilities production; mining production probably also fell
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