Monday, November 16, 2015

Typical risk-off in Asia on Paris terror attack, EU CPI eyed

FXStreet (Mumbai) - A cautious start to a fresh week, as investor confidence was hit by Friday’s Paris terror attacks by Islamic terrorists. The appetite for risker assets was killed as markets preferred to invest in traditional safe-havens such as yen and gold. While bearish opening gap was seen across most G10 currencies on widespread risk-aversion, the follow through lacked momentum.

Key headlines in Asia

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.1% to 1.6% in 3Q

France retaliates: Air force pounds IS stronghold in Syria after Paris attacks

Japan enters technical recession in Q3

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

Sentiment soured across Asia and classic risk-off theme prevailed on Monday, as markets continue to weigh the French terror-attack aftermath and the ongoing retaliation by France on Syria after multiple terror attacks on Paris over the weekend, which killed almost 130 people. As a result, the demand for safe-haven assets on the rise, with the yen and gold benefiting the most. Gold prices rebound from multi-year lows near 1080 levels and extend higher towards 1093. While the USD/JPY pair extends recovery from the Paris terror – bearish opening gap and hovers around 122.50 levels, as the yen lost ground somewhat after the Japanese economy dived deeper in contraction in the third quarter, falling -0.2% over the quarter, against forecasts of a 0.1% drop.

The biggest loser so far was EUR/USD after the euro was badly hit post-Paris attack, which raised further doubts on the Euro zone economic prospects. The US dollar gained across the board on the back of steep losses seen in EUR/USD, with the DXY rising 0.32% to 99.20 levels. While, the Aussie keeps offered tone intact and wavers above 0.71 handle, unable to extend beyond the hourly 50-SMA resistance. On the other hand, the NZD/USD pair shrugged-off upbeat NZ retail sales data and turned lower on waning demand for higher-yielding currencies in wake of Paris atrocities. The Kiwi now struggles around 0.6530, recording a 0.15% loss on the day.

The Asian stocks are trading sharply lower amid persisting risk-off moods, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei losing over -1% to 19,387 while mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite drops -0.51% to 3,562 while Australia’s S&P ASX index drops -0.65% to 5,017. Hong Kong’s Hang dives -1.87% to 21,978.

Heading into Europe & the US

Heading into a data-light EUR trading calendar in the week ahead, markets will keep an eye on the Eurozone final CPI figures and ZEW surveys as the countdown for the Dec 3 ECB meeting begins.

The euro zone will publish its October inflation data on Monday, with inflation expected to register a flat result year-on-year. In September, consumer price growth in the euro zone reached a negative 0.1% annual level. Prices in the euro area are projected to add 0.1% on a monthly basis, following a 0.2% result in September.

ECB President Draghi will speak at the European Roundtable of Industrialists (ERT) Plenary Session in Madrid, Spain. While ECB board member Benoit Cœure will participate in 12th annual colloquium in Paris, France.

Looking ahead, the North American session appears quite dull with the regional Empire State manufacturing index on the cards. While manufacturing sales data from Canada will be reported later today.

EUR/USD Technicals

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet noted, “Technically, and according to the daily chart, the pair has barely corrected the extreme oversold readings reached after the release of US employment data a week ago. In the same chart, the Momentum indicator aims higher, but remains below its mid-line, whilst the 20 SMA has extended its decline below the 100 and 200 SMAs, and remains far above the current level, all of which supports the ongoing bearish trend.”

“In the 4 hours chart, the price has been moving back and forth around a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head slightly higher around their mid-lines, lacking upward strength. Selling interest has contained advances in the 1.0800/10 price zone, yet even some follow though beyond the level won't affect the trend, as only a recovery above 1.1000 will mark and interim bottom under way.”
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