Thursday, November 12, 2015

Time running out for Riksbank accommodation as inflation upticks - BNPP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, expect Swedish headline CPI to improve to a +0.2% y/y rate, better than consensus and the best reading since March.

Key Quotes

“The core y/y rate, which has held up better, is also likely to improve further, reaching 1.1% for the first time since August 2013. The Riksbank remains committed to combatting SEK strength now and is likely to ease policy further in December in an effort to offset the impact of further ECB measures, we believe time is slowly running out on the central bank’s ability to match or exceed ECB accommodation.”

“Sweden’s economy does not have a good deal of excess capacity. As inflation improves heading into 2016, markets are likely to increasingly question the capacity of the Riksbank to resist SEK gains. We remain long-term SEK bulls and are positioned for an eventual break lower in EURSEK via a 9.00 put recommendation expiring in August 2016.”
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