Friday, November 6, 2015

RBA SoMP: Improved economic conditions, inflation forecast revised down

FXStreet (Bali) - The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) has been published, with the Central Bank trimming its inflation forecast, while being more positive on economic conditions.

Key headlines - via Reuters

Australia central bank says prospects for economy have firmed a little

Subdued inflation outlook may afford scope to ease further if needed

Cuts near term inflation forecasts by 0.5 ppt, shaves longer term gdp forecasts

Sees underlying inflation around 2 pct for most of next year, before rising to 2.5 pct

Underlying inflation forecast 1.5-2.5 pct by mid-2016, then 2-3 pct out to end 2017

GDP growth forecast at 2.25 pct end 2015, 2.5-3.5 pct end 2016, 3-4 pct end 2017

GDP revisions for 2017 reflect slower start up of lng projects

Economic growth appears to have picked up in q3 thanks to exports, home building

Employment growth forecast to remain relatively strong, jobless rate to hold steady

Sees unemployment between 6-6.25 pct over next year, then falling gradually

Data suggest pick up in non-mining investment unlikely in the near term

Lower a$ has boosted net service exports, makes no comment on level of a$

Tighter supervision helping contain risk from housing market

Asia slowdown to be more persistent than expected, key uncertainty for forecasts
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