Tuesday, November 17, 2015

RBA minutes - what to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - The RBA Minutes is due today while the Aussie has been better offered, but trying to make a come back on to the 0.71 handle while testing the 200 SMA on the hourly chart at 0.7093 in a slow market that has been in consolidation after the initial risk-off opening in Asia yesterday.

RBA minutes to reveal a steady hand

While these come soon after the statement and while there may not be anything more in the minutes that markets are not already aware of, there had been a recent change of tone from the RBA last time around. The Bank is still reluctant to cut interest rates, but remain vigilant while in wait and see mode. Despite the RBA recently "admitting to" overshooting their growth forecasts, the key jobs report that were printed after the recent decision to hold beat expectations by a huge margin, almost dubiously so, and will be a relief to the RBA in the respect of not needing to act while the policy is having its intended effect. In previous minutes, the RBA was bullish on this aspect of the economy and while the meeting was before the recent jobs data, the minutes may continue to reflect that.

There might be mentions of the property market and the over supply that had been expressed in minutes earlier in the year and detailed in the RBA's half-yearly financial stability report and while there are economic improvements, inflation has been making life a close call at the margin for the Central Bank of late. There could be also further mention of additional appreciation of the Aussie inline with commodity prices,improvements in business conditions in respect of the labour market and a steady-to-lower unemployment rate that we have already witnessed.

Key AUD/USD levels to monitor

AUD/USD will likely remain steady with the good news data and an on hold RBA already priced into the major, however, 0.7066 remains the key target on a break below the 0.71 handle and break below the 0.7080 would be significant and opens the medium term target for the September lows at 0.6940 with 0.6774 2004 low on the wide. On the flipside, the 4hr 200 SMA at 0.7180 would be first key resistance ahead of 0.7220 while 0.7496 comes as the 200 DMA that would alleviate the bearish pressures.
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