Tuesday, November 3, 2015

RBA interest rates preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - The Australian Dollar was losing its recent bullishness on the short-term charts while it has been staging a minor recovery off the six-year lows down at 0.6907 in early September business and managed a high of 0.7382 on 11th October.

There were set-backs in sentiment for a rate hike coming from the Fed and worse than expected Nonfarm Payrolls data in October, allowing the bulls to recover within the broader bearish trend. We now look to this week as a potentially pinnacle week for not just the greenback, but also the Aussie dollar.

RBA to cut? Market is on the fence

Expectations of a rate cut from the RBA has increased month on month as Global growth continues to deteriorate while domestically in Australia, the recent surprise drop in Q3 CPI had added to a rate cut sentiment. However, as noted by analysts at Westpac, "The surprise drop in the inflation measure is not unique and, in the past, the RBA has looked through a one off number. The motivation for cutting today would be a significant downward revision to the growth outlook."

It is a close call before the races today, while pricing for a rate cut is at 40% today, but expectations of a dovish statement are high if the Central Bank do not cut, so either way, the Aussie could come under pressure on a 25bp cut or simply a dovish statement and less bullishness on the economy with a wide door left open for a cut in the near future would destabilize the bulls safety nets (see supports below) while recognizing increasing pressures on the Bank, domestically and externally.

Alternatively, any continued bullishness over the economy and a more neutral/less dovish statement would be supportive of the Aussie. The price of the Aussie may also be a topic mentioned in the statement that would be expected to also weigh on the currency if the RBA mention that they are ultimately continuing to expect and/or desire a weaker value.

AUD/USD: Key levels to monitor

AUD/USD is stuck to the 55 day moving average at 0.7141 while any rallies off a bullish outcome from the statement and rate decision would initially target 0.7176 200 SMA on the hourly chart and make way for the 0.7200 level. However, the bears are not in danger until a breach of the 0.7298 break up point en route to the 0.7385 Fibo retracement of the 2014-2015 downtrend and early October highs.

To the downside, we are in familiar territory and ranges until 0.7066 that guards the medium term target for the September lows at 0.6940 with 0.6774 2004 low on the wide.

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