Monday, November 9, 2015

NZDUSD: Recent events reignited sell bias - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, expects the last week’s decline in the NZDUSD to continue this week, targeting 0.6400.

Key Quotes

“Our brief flirtation with a bullish NZD bias NZD/USD NZD/USD abruptly ended last week after surprisingly weak and strong, respectively, NZ and US labour reports. The NZ event calendar is very much second-tier this week, unlikely to significantly influence the NZD. We have electronic retail sales and REINZ housing data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence (ANZ) and food prices on Thursday.

3 months ahead: Multi-month, we see the NZ economy slowing, the RBNZ easing in December, and the Fed possibly tightening the same month. We target 0.62. The main risk to this bearish view is the Fed delays its tightening cycle beyond December. A secondary risk is the RBNZ doesn’t cut in December.

1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
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