Monday, November 16, 2015

NZDUSD: Bearish news in the recent past - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, notes that the NZD/USD pair remains on the back foot, thanks to a strong US dollar and slowing NZ economic momentum.

Key Quotes

“The 0.6500 level is proving sticky, but should eventually give way. The highlights for markets from this week’s NZ calendar will be the GDT dairy auction and the RBNZ survey of inflation expectations (both Tuesday). Dairy prices are tipped by futures to fall further, while inflation expectations are likely to remain subdued. There’s also retail sales and services PMI (both Monday), PPI (Thursday) and credit card spending (Friday).

3 months ahead: By year-end, we see the NZ economy slowing, the RBNZ easing in December, and the Fed tightening the same month. We target 0.62. The main risk to this bearish view is the Fed delays its tightening cycle beyond December. A secondary risk is the RBNZ doesn’t cut in December.

1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
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