Monday, November 23, 2015

NZD/USD back in the red on growing FOMC/RBNZ divergence

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The New Zealand dollar halted its 3-day rally versus its American rival and traded deep in the red at the start of a fresh week, knocking-off NZD/USD to session lows near 0.6530 region.

NZD/USD eyes hourly 200-SMA at 0.6524

Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades 0.50% lower near fresh session lows posted at 0.6530, having failed to extend beyond 0.66 barrier last week. The Kiwi kicked-off the week on a softer note and remains heavily offered on the back of the latest chatter that the Fed may finally move onto a rate lift-off today as it holds a mysterious announcement tonight. As a result the US dollar remains broadly lifted across the board, with the USD index gaining 0.14% at 99.80 levels.

While the NZD remains weak on rising speculations that the RBNZ may slash key rates at its Dec 10 meeting as the country’s inflation remains weak with the dairy prices falling at the last two Fonterra’s auctions.

Most economists are predicting RBNZ to cut from 2.75% to 2.5%. However, markets are only pricing in a 50% chance of a cut at the RBNZ's December meeting.

Later this week, a host of key US macro releases and NZ trade balance are likely to heavily influence the pair in light of growing monetary policy divergence between both Fed and RBNZ.

NZD/USD Levels to consider

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.6563 (Today’s High), above which it could extend gains to 0.6612 (50-DMA) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.6500 (round number) below that 0.6463 (Nov 19 Low).
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