Wednesday, November 4, 2015

NZ jobs data: What to expect in NZD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has been under pressure today on the back of the Fonterra auction and subsequent drop in dairy prices that have taken the bird to score lows of 0.6651. (See here for that price action report). There has been some trivial demand there and a recovery to the 0.67 handle ahead of the NZ jobs data today.

What to expect in the NZ jobs data?

The undertone in the bird has been quite bullish since the RBNZ's less dovish stance on the 29th October and has been a top performer until the phase of consolidation that accumulated at the 200 SMA on the hourly chart at 0.6749 today raising an air of caution to be too long this week leading into the dairy prices and jobs data.

Employment and unemployment statistics count and describe people in New Zealand who are in paid employment, unemployed, and not in the labour force. The Q3 labour report will offer an update unemployment as well as employment growth in the economy as well as wage inflation.

Labour Market Stats: Q2, June 2015

Key facts

Employment at a glance

Unemployment rate rises to 5.9 percent. Annual employment continues its period of growth, but quarterly growth falls behind working-age population growth. Labour force participation rate falls 0.2 percentage points, after record high in March quarter.

Wages at a glance

Annual wage inflation at 1.6 percent.

Labour Market Stats: Q3, Nov 2015

Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation explained, "We expect employment growth to increase slightly to 0.4% (qoq) but strong inward migration should elevate the unemployment rate from 5.9% to 6.2%. Wage growth may pick up slightly, but remain low."

An improvement in these statistics should offer some continued support to the bird and a recovery above the 20 SMA on the hourly chart could elevate demand back into the neutral pocket that has been formed on the back end of October's business. However, with the Dec RBNZ meeting sighted as a potential opportunity for the Central Bank to cut interest rates at the same time as the Fed could be hiking, the upside is fundamentally limited, and any sort of a miss of expectations could be the catalyst for a resumption of the broader bearish trend while confirming the RBNZ's fears of a slowing economy.

NZD/USD: Key levels to monitor

Technically, NZD/USD's 200 SMA on the hourly at 0.6750 today has been broken to the downside and leaves the bird open to further downside pressures along with the bearish bias that has formed below the 200 DMA at 0.7003 with a key target of 0.6620, guarding a continuation of the bearish trend. However, upside surprises from the report could expose the top of the sideways channel at circa 0.6790 that guards 0.6865 22nd Oct highs and 0.6897 14th Oct highs before exposing the 200 DMA at the magic try line (All Blacks pun again) of 0.7000.
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