Thursday, November 12, 2015

Firming USD fades the bounce in commodity bloc FX - BNPP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the Australia’s October jobs report surprised substantially to the upside, with a 58.6k rise in employment pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.9%.

Key Quotes

“Interest rate markets have reacted by reducing pricing for RBA easing and in sympathy the AUD has firmed. However, we would be cautious of chasing further gains in the AUD for two reasons. Firstly, Australian jobs data tends to be very volatile and so focussing on one data point alone distorts the overall picture. Secondly, BNP Paribas positioning analysis signals the market did not go into the data release holding a sizeable AUD short position.”

“On Wednesday we added a short NZDUSD spot recommendation at 0.6565 with a 0.6240 target as our STEER™ short-term fair-value model is signalling the NZD is currently the most overvalued G10 currency against the USD. We also continue to run a short AUDUSD option position initiated last week.”
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