Friday, November 13, 2015

EU/German GDP preview: What to expect in EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/USD is last trading just below the 1.08 handle, having failed to make much progress above the round number, after a brief last push higher as US market participants were wrapping up for the day.

Note, yesterday's action in the US Dollar was strongly correlated to the poor performance seen in Wall Street, with the SP500 losing 1.4%. The broad-based USD weakness, even against the Euro, came despite a heavy Euro in early Europe, as ECB's Draghi kept telegraphing a very dovish message.

German, European Q3 GDPs eyed

Today's initial catalyst to inject volatility in the European-shared currency is due at 6GMT with the release of the German preliminary Q3 GDP figures, expected at 0.3% vs 0.4% in Q2, followed by the release of the whole EU GDP preliminary Q3 GDP numbers.

According to Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific: "Europe's Q3 GDP is seen up 0.4% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y, which is probably about as good as it gets given the structural impediments to growth there."

"This begs the question of where Mr. Draghi’s gloom comes from; until one recalls that this is based on the favourable headwinds of lower oil prices and EUR, which together have only managed to generate this weak – and entirely non-inflationary – upturn", Mr Every adds.

With regards to the latest developments from the ECB, President Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament on Thursday confirmed the early intuition displayed by smart money on Nov 6th, when EUR/USD plummeted over 2 cents following Draghi's ECB press conference on policy, as the Italian policy-maker sounded even more dovish-than-anticipated yesterday.

The reiteration of a very dovish rhetoric vy Mr. Draghi, saying they will re-examine monetary policy accommodation at December meeting, led Nick Matthews, European Economist at Nomura, to suggest that "a broader package of measures on 3 December is coming, to include 10bp deposit rate cut in addition to QE extension."

EUR/USD key levels to watch

The Euro/US Dollar stalled its advance at the key 9-day EMA, which one may assume to be a solid place for a reinstatement of macro sell orders in line with growing 2016 EUR/USD forecasts calling for parity now being a realistic target for the most traded pair in the world. Should intraday algo, momentum traders find it attractive to continue pushing the pair off its overstretched decline, the next key level to the upside is seen at 1.0830 - Thursday''s high + daily R1 - followed by sticky supply area at 1.0850/60 - origin latest daily sell-off, ahead of 1.09 psychological number. On the downside, a resumption of the bear trend should see 1.0770/77 exposed - support intraday and daily pivot - followed by 1.0750 - US swing low - ahead of 1.0710/00 - support latest European session -.
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