Tuesday, November 17, 2015

China: Pre-empting “Irrational Exuberance” - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) - Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, suggests that accelerating pro-market reforms and monetary accommodation are making Chinese stocks attractive but more steps will be needed to curb investors’ “irrational exuberance”.

Key Quotes

“After the close of trading on Friday the CSRC announced a doubling of the newly-increased margin requirement to 100% from 50% effective November 23. Rapid growth of margin lending contributed to the more than doubling of the Shanghai composite from late November to mid-June. As of last Thursday margin lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen had increased for eight consecutive days by CNY136bn. However, it was “only” CNY1.16tr as of last Thursday. It peaked at CNY2.27tr on June 18.”

“The move was a pre-emptive strike against “irrational exuberance” of the kind that preceded the market crash. We expect more steps will be needed because of the attractiveness of the stock market where the government is pursuing pro-market reforms and the central bank is increasing accommodation.”
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