Monday, November 2, 2015

China PMIs fuel risk-off across Asia, UK manufacturing PMI - key

FXStreet (Mumbai) - A renewed wave of risk-aversion hit Asia on Monday, after mixed China’s PMI reports from Markit and Caixin reinforced ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy. Investors fretted over China data and flocked to safe-haven currencies such as the yen, CHF and the euro. While amongst the risk currencies, the US dollar was the biggest loser, followed by the NZD.

Key headlines in Asia

Australia's Oct manufacturing index in moderate expansion

PBOC: Biggest yuan strength at fix in over 10 years

Caixin China PMI: Deterioration the weakest since June

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

The demand for safe-havens was on the rise in Asia as risk-off sentiment emerged the main theme amid unimpressive Chinese PMI reports and tumbling Asian equities. The US dollar suffered the most against its six major competitors, as the US currency appears to make a comeback as risk currency.

Amongst the safe-haven assets, the euro and the yen were the top performers, followed by the Swiss franc. While the gold prices staged a solid rebound from over three-week lows struck near $ 1133 in early trades to now trade at $ 1141 levels. Meanwhile, USD/JPY drops -0.23% and tested Friday’s low reached at 120.26 and the EUR/USD Pair gains 0.24% to trade around 1.1030, holding on firmly above 1.10 barrier.

While the Antipodes trade mixed, with the Aussie better bid on the back of upbeat Aus macro releases and improved Caixin Chinese manufacturing gauge. The latest Caixin China’s manufacturing beat estimates (47.5) and stood at 48.3, although remained in the contraction territory. While markets cheered upbeat Aus building consents and Oct manufacturing index. Australia’s building approvals data beat expectations of 1.8% and stood at 2.2% last month. AUD/USD trades modestly flat at 0.7137, while the Kiwi trades -0.12% lower at 0.6771, weighed by diminishing bids for higher yielding currencies.

On the equities space, the Asian stocks dive deep in the red on China PMIs, with the Japanese stocking leading other Asian indices lower. The Nikkei sinks over 2% to 18,696. Australia’s S&P ASX index drops -1.30% to 5,171. While China’s A50 index loses -0.11% to 10,037. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declines -0.70% to 22,481.

Heading into Europe & the US

The week kicks-off with a series of final manufacturing PMI reports from across the Euro are economies. However, the manufacturing PMI reading from the UK is likely to be the main risk event in the European session ahead.

The UK manufacturing PMI is seen inching slightly lower to 51.4 from 51.5 seen in September. While from the euro zone, preliminary manufacturing PMI in October came in at 52.0 and the same result is expected in the final reading. The flash PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector activity recorded 51.6, with the indicator expected to hold in the final result.

Looking towards the NA session, a set of manufacturing PMIs from the US will be reported, with the PMI reading from the ISM expected to be closely watched. Apart from the economic data, FOMC member Williams is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at the San Francisco Fed event.

EUR/USD Technicals

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “The daily chart shows that selling interest surged on an approach to the 200 DMA, whilst the Momentum indicator maintains a strong bearish, despite being in oversold territory. In the same chart, the RSI indicator has managed to bounce from oversold levels, but remains well into negative territory, leaving room for additional declines. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is struggling around a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have failed to advance above their mid-lines, but lack enough bearish strength to confirm a bearish movement ahead.”
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