Tuesday, November 3, 2015

BoE to indicate near term rate hikes? - Nomura

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Philip Rush, analyst at Nomura explained that at noon on 5 November, the BoE will announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish both the minutes of the monthly meeting and the quarterly Inflation Report, consistent with the changes introduced a few months ago.

Key Quotes:

"Further falls in oil prices present disinflationary pressure in the near term, but unemployment’s resumed decline and wage pressures mean the medium-term outlook should be more buoyant. China might actually be beating its forecast."

"The market’s focus on the downside news has caused a large dovish repricing that should add about 20bp to the BoE’s inflation forecasts over policy relevant horizons. This is the other side of inflation’s assumed elasticity to Bank rate appearing to have been doubled under Mark Carney’s tenure."

"With the Fed’s first rate hike appearing closer, the MPC should be comfortable guiding the more cyclically advanced UK economy toward expecting earlier rate hikes. Whether the market sees such a message as living up to its pricing on the day is the bigger hurdle. Mark Carney’s reports usually drive dovish action."
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