Thursday, November 19, 2015

Barclays: FOMC Minutes: A Divided Committee? - eFXnews

FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at Barclays Capital views the minutes of the October FOMC meeting as reflecting a much less certain committee than the hawkish October statement conveyed, as noted by eFXnews.

Key Quotes

"Members seemed to have differing levels of confidence over the likelihood of inflation returning to target, although as a whole the committee believes that with appropriate policy, inflation will gradually return to 2%. Members also seemed uncertain over the state of labor markets. Many expressed concerns about the likely evolution of labor markets, and some noted that the weak job reports in August and September posed downside risk to the outlook. Of course, the October jobs report seems to have allayed many of these concerns, leaving the committee primed for a December rate hike," Barclays adds.

"The minutes suggest that the committee remains divided. However, since the time of the October meeting, we see them as having reached a broad consensus on a December rate hike.

We believe that divisions within the committee and the soft path of inflation we expect early next year will lead to a lower policy path in 2016 than the committee expects; we forecast it will hike only three times in 2016," Barclays argues.
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