Thursday, November 5, 2015

AUDUSD likely to struggle as Yellen signals December is live - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the Fed Chair Yellen this week declared that the US economy is “performing well” so a Dec hike is a “live possibility” which suggest that AUD/USD is likely to struggle on any bounces towards 0.73.

Key Quotes

“AUD should also rise against the euro multi-week, with ECB president Draghi this week reiterating that a range of options to ease policy are on the table for the meeting 2 days after the RBA’s likely steady hand in Dec. But AUD/ USD is a lot less compelling.”

“Fed officials have repeated the FOMC statement’s warning that a rate hike would be considered on 16 Dec. Pricing for such an outcome has risen above 50% for the first time this year. This should lend underlying support to USD, with only a truly weak Oct payrolls report (e.g. including downward revisions) likely to shake this support.”

“As such, many USD/Asia pairs should find buyers on dips Delivery of Fed tightening in Dec is a key factor in Westpac’s year-end AUD/USD target of 0.68. But in the week ahead at least, AUD should be able to benefit on various crosses from the RBA’s preference to look on the bright side for the Australian economy in 2016.”
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