Wednesday, September 16, 2015

US: Soft industrial production further dampens September lift-off bets - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that the recent soft industrial production data from US will act as a last nail in the coffin for FOMC and will further dampen the bets for September lift off.

Key Quotes

“US August industrial production was even softer than consensus expectations, falling 0.4% mom (cons = -0.2%), with manufacturing down 0.5%mom (cons = -0.3%).”

“Much of the weakness was in the vehicles sector, and when this is stripped out, production was flat on the month - still not great however, and this ex-vehicles segment has been flat, down or very weak for months now.”

“If there are any bright spots, it is in utilities, which rose 0.6%, though mining put in another fall of 0.6%. All in all, weak, disappointing, and taken together with other data - retail sales and Empire manufacturing, nudges the argument in the direction of the FOMC doves.”

“With only CPI left to come before the September 17th meeting, and that likely to be on the low side, the data dependent FOMC might find the pendulum swinging a little more to the "no hike" side.”
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