Tuesday, September 29, 2015

BOJ Tankan: Expect decline in business conditions and inflation expectations – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, expect that this week’s BOJ September Tankan survey is likely to show deterioration in the business conditions DI in addition to decline in inflation expectations.

Key Quotes

“The FY2015 capex plan is likely to remain unchanged but, considering the seasonal moves, this can be interpreted as companies growing more cautious on their capex plans. We also expect a downward revision to corporate price expectations. We note the importance of the upcoming Tankan survey in the BOJ’s policy decision.”

“Inventory cycle is deteriorating, especially in the production and capital goods areas, partly reflecting sluggish business in China as well as stagnation of the Japanese economy. We expect flat industrial production in August, following a large -0.8% mom decline in July, confirming stagnant production activity.”

“Household spending has been weak for the past few months, but we expect some improvement in August partly due to favorable weather conditions. We expect real household spending to remain weak, however, rising only +0.1% yoy in August.”
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