Tuesday, September 15, 2015

NZ: Economy likely to expand 0.8% in Q2 and 2.7% (YoY) – BNZ

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNZ, suggest that the Thursday’s June quarter GDP report will be the focal point for New Zealand this week. We anticipate a 0.8% gain in Q2 GDP (with risks tilted to 0.7%) and an expansion of 2.7% on a yearly basis for the Kiwi economy, the team further suggests.

Key Quotes

“Market expectations are for a quarterly expansion of 0.5/0.6%. The RBNZ, in its September MPS, was looking for +0.6%. This is founded on a bounce-back in rural production following
its drought-impacted performance of Q1 (which, in turn, limited that quarter’s GDP rise to 0.2%). This should reverberate into a good lift in manufacturing for Q2, via food processing.”

“Also, we expect a further decent increment from construction and ongoing robustness in service sector activity growth. Our expenditure-GDP growth estimate for Q2 is 0.6%.”

“Our expectation on (production-based) GDP would deliver annual growth of 2.7%. However, this outcome is potentially sensitive to the historical revisions that Statistics NZ is due to implement with this week’s national accounts (and Balance of Payments) release.”
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