Saturday, September 12, 2015

Key events taking place next week - TDS

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted key events taking place next week.

Key Quotes:

"FOMC (17 Sep): TD’s expectation is for the Fed to err on the side of caution and take a pass on raising rates at the September meeting, as the risk that recent market volatility and the deterioration in financial conditions will curtail the outlook for growth and inflation is too big to ignore. The consensus expectation, however, is for a dovish hike. The market remains unconvinced, assigning 30% odds of a hike. However, even if the Fed does not move on rates they are likely to maintain a hawkish bias."

"US CPI & Retail Sales (15 & 16 Sep): Ahead of the critical FOMC meeting on Thursday, the August CPI and retail sales report should provide some important context for judging the outlook for both growth and inflation. The CPI report should underscore the benign inflationary backdrop as the fallout from the recent run-up in the dollar and weakening in energy prices continue to make its way through the price channel. We see balanced risks around the consensus call for 0.2% y/y. The weakening in inflation momentum should add to the case for caution as the Fed considers the timing for liftoff. The retail sales report should provide some modest encouragement on the tone of consumer spending activity, with the pace of sales rising modestly. Here, we see downside risks relative to the market consensus call for 0.3% m/m in the headline print."

"China IP and Retail Sales (13 Sep): After markets largely brushed off China’s tepid trade report last week, we’ll be looking into Sunday’s retail sales and industrial production data for more details on the Chinese economy in August. Given CNY and equity market volatility and the Tianjin port blast in August, we don’t expect the Chinese figures to be great. But as China gradually shifts towards a more domestic-focused economy, the export-oriented production data will gradually trend down, and the retail sales number will become an increasingly important gauge of the rotation of demand and of the broader health of the economy."
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