Monday, September 14, 2015

EUR/USD forecast: risk-off returns – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD keeps the trade in the mid-1.1300s so far, propped up by the risk-off sentiment triggered after Chinese data over the weekend have disappointed investors.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “inched slowly higher throughout last week and has seen a small erosion of the 200 day ma. It remains upside corrective and will remain so while above the 55 day ma at 1.11. The intraday Elliott wave count has turned more positive – the move above 1.1332, the 1st September high suggests gains to the 1.1468 May high and currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting potential to 1.1580”.

In addition, “Multi-session, the EUR-USD may attempt to shade higher ahead of the FOMC despite CFTC data showing net leveraged EUR shorts accumulating further in the latest week. The common currency may lose its recent funding currency characteristics as Fed lift-off expectations fade and we expect the 200-day MA (1.1245) to offer support. Beyond 1.1400, subsequent resistance is expected towards 1.1470”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.
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