Monday, September 14, 2015

China: Uncertain economic conditions – NAB

FXStreet (Delhi) – Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at National Australia Bank, note that the short term disruptions add some uncertainty to extent of China’s economic slowdown and overall scenario for the mainland remains uncertain.

Key Quotes

“Weak production and import numbers continue to suggest slowing conditions in the industrial sector, however this signal was less clear in August, due to disruptions related to the Tianjin port explosion and industrial shutdowns ahead of the World War 2 anniversary military parade in Beijing.”

China’s 2014 GDP was revised lower in September – with growth down to 7.3% (compared with 7.4% previously) – due to weaker growth in services.”

“China’s industrial production growth remained weak in August – at 6.1% yoy (up marginally from 6.0% last month).”

“There was a slight increase in headline inflation in August, although the rate remained around the modest trend levels seen over the past eighteen months – with the CPI rising by 2.0% in August (compared with 1.6% in July). Pork prices remain the key influence.”

“New credit was stronger in August – almost 13% higher in year-on-year terms. However, it remains around -10% yoy lower over the first eight months of 2015.”
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