Thursday, September 24, 2015

AUD: Overshoot likely in case of further RBA cuts - ANZ

FXStreet (Delhi) – Daniel Been, Research Analyst at ANZ Research, suggests that AUD is likely to overshoot in case the RBA eases rates further, as he expects that there are likely to be at least two rate cuts in H1 2016.

Key Quotes

“A shift in the balance of risks in Australia has prompted us to forecast that the RBA will ease rates twice more, in H1 2016.”

“This shift in tact means that the probability that the AUD overshoots its fundamental fair value has risen and we revise our forecasts lower. The AUD will now trough at USD0.64.”

“This means that we are now expecting the AUD/NZD to depreciate modestly. We look for the cross to ease towards 1.0850 by the middle of 2016.”
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