Tuesday, October 6, 2015

USD/JPY: Are we moving into new fundamental territory?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is steady in the Tokyo open while the Yen has been travelling along the mid point of the 120 handle as risk appetite returns. But for how long?

We are in highly uncertain territory aren't we?

We were once sure that 'the' rate hike was coming from the Fed and as time has gone by, the inevitability of it has diminished. The Nonfarm Payrolls was the nail in the coffin in that respect, but was it just a fluke number or something more seeded that we need to be concerned about?

So we need to be asking what does this all mean to Global markets and what is being signalled here? If the world's leading economy begins to slow, as an investor, where are you going to go with your appetite for risk?

USD/JPY is a barometer for Global risk markets as the Yen serves as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. The recent CFTC report shows that JPY shorts decreased modestly again last week moving further away from their recent highs.

However, speculation that the BoJ could increase QE again this year could temper support for the yen going forward and taking both sides into account, on a fundamental basis we remain within familiar ranges - perhaps for some time to come yet.

FOMC minute are key this week

Watch the FOMC minutes later this week for further dovish signs to support a lower case for the greenback, but keep in mind the relief that Global borrowings and equity markets will enjoy for delays to the timings of a rate hike.

Technicals are unchanged

Analysts at UOB Group explained, "Neutral: Still neutral, but key levels are further apart. While USD broke below the strong 119.00 support last Friday (low of 118.65/70), the rapid reversal coupled with the strong daily close suggests that USD is not ready to move lower in a sustained manner. In other words, we continue to hold a neutral view, but the key levels are further apart now between 118.65 and 121.30. On a shorter-term note, 120.40 is already a strong resistance."
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