Tuesday, October 6, 2015

RBA interest rates preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Bali) - The Australian Dollar, unlike the Euro or Pound, managed to make some further progress against the US Dollar during Monday, on the back of a disappointing US NFP last Friday, and with the focus now shifted towards the RBA monetary policy decision.

RBA expected to stay on hold

According to recent surveys, including the last published by Bloomberg - based on 27 forecasters - a no change in policy is expected. If one refers to the OIS pricing, chances of a 25bp rate cut at today's meeting stand at 34%, suggesting that the possibility of further easing should not be completely ruled out, although it would definitely be a major shocker for the market and for the AUD.

One of the pressing issues for the RBA to ease further might be the fact that the Fed is now expected to remain on hold, at least, until March next year, according to the Fed fund futures pricing, standing at around 50% for March, with chances for Dec down to just 30%. However, the RBA rhetoric on the local currency has eased, communicating to the market that at around current levels (between 0.70-75), the Central Bank finds it more comfortable. Besides, revised forecasts for the economy are published in November, implying that if the RBA is considering to cut, it would be logical to think it should occur once the latest projections are out.

AUD/USD: Key levels to monitor

Ahead of the Central Bank decision, the AUD/USD trades around its pivot level at 0.7080. On the upside, the most immediate hurdle is located at 0.7110/15 - Monday's high and daily R1 - , with a break higher exposing 0.7145/55 - cluster between daily R2 and horizontal level - ahead of 0.7080, which again, sees the confluence of daily R3 + horizontal level. On the downside, the key area to protect by buyers is found at 0.7045/55 - point of control intraday - followed by 0.70 round number + daily R2 + ATR14 limit, tested in multiple occasions; below this latter, 0.6980 - daily R3 - should come into focus.
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