Monday, October 5, 2015

USD: US payroll growth first time below 2% in last one year – SocGen

FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that the US payroll growth peaked at 2.34%y/y in February and the slowdown continued in September, taking the growth rate below 2% for the first time in over a year.

Key Quotes

“The post-WW2 average is also 1.9% and the turn is hardly dramatic (though softening wage growth in goods-producing sectors is worrying) but the possibility that the US economic cycle has now peaked is going to be much debated. What would that mean for the dollar?”

“The market verdict since mid-day Friday is pretty clear as the dollar and yen have fallen while emerging market and high-beta G10 currencies have bounced. But is that the right response in a world lacking an alternative growth engine if the US does slow?”
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