Wednesday, October 28, 2015

RBA to cut rates next Tuesday, scope for further AUD weakness - BNP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Economists at BNP Paribas, now expect a 25bp cut at next Tuesday’s RBA Board meeting while the market is pricing a 60% chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting.

Key Quotes

“Australia’s Q3 CPI data surprised to the downside. Headline inflation increased 1.5% y/y, unchanged from Q2 and below market expectations of 1.7%. The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to 2.1% y/y from 2.2%, versus market expectations for a rise to 2.4%. Imported inflation was the key source of disappointment.”

“So, there is scope for AUD to weaken if a cut materialises, particularly given that BNP Paribas positioning analysis signals AUD short positions have reduced from -28 at the start of October to -9 currently (on a scale of +- 50).”

“The RBNZ will announce policy on Wednesday at 8pm GMT with the majority of forecasters expecting no change. Like in the AUD, short NZD positioning has unwound considerably in recent weeks. Therefore, the NZD is similarly vulnerable to a more dovish than expected statement or a 25bp rate cut.”
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