Tuesday, October 20, 2015

RBA minutes preview: ain't no Pandora's box

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been in a cycle of recovery from the downtrend of 0.8150 and May 2015 highs. The recovery has been relatively strong, but almost a disguised conviction that may be about to reveal its true identity with a lack of substance.

We have run up from the 0.7150 territory to 0.7382 the high of 11th October on a consecutive 8-day run of gains. The Fed has been the driver as far back as one recalls in this market, and prices have shifted on forever changing sentiment as to the timings of lift off, while at the same time, the RBA has continued to stay true to their "wait-and-see" policy allowing the currency to fluctuate within a comfortable range for the Central Bank below the 0.76 handle, at the same time, taking comfort in the jobs market and that the effects from China are too soon to measure.

But of recent sessions, the chatter on the street points towards the possibility of a forced hand from the Bank to cut interest rates, perhaps as soon as November, due to continued pressures in the slow down of commodity prices, China and domestic implications from the high street, housing and the consumer marketplace.

What to expect from RBA minutes

Today's minutes might be expected to reveal signals to this effect and could weigh on the Aussie if any of the concerns are apparently changing the mindset of the RBA. However, and such as the title, analysts at Westpac explained, "Given that statement was almost a clone of the previous, fresh major insights are unlikely, but there will still be scrutiny of the details. Language on AUD has been quite neutral since August."

AUD/USD: key levels to monitor

Technically, the upside targets the 0.7385 Fib retracement level on the way to 0.7402 2014-2015 downtrend and August highs of and the 0.7439 August high. On the flip side, 0.7227 is first support and a break of the 0.72 handle puts the 55 DMA under pressure at 0.7179 ahead of 0.7146 and the 20 DMA. The October lows are then revealed and the start of the short-term recovery from 0.7000.
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