Thursday, October 15, 2015

RBA jobs report preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been collecting demand again supported by the 200 SMA on the hourly chart after a period of profit taking instigated on concerns from China again, while otherwise, risk appetite had returned with base metals and oil bouncing back and gold rising as well allowing the Aussie to recover vs a weaker greenback and sentiment for a Fed hike of late.

AUD/USD took on another bearish hit recently when there had been some market chatter over an imminent cut from the RBA on the back of Westpac, Australia's second-largest mortgage lender, lifting owner-occupied mortgage lending rates by 20 bps, but this argument for a rate cut was rebuttaled by analyst at TD Securities that can be read here.

Australian jobs data is expected to be mixed

The employment change is expected 5k vs 17.4k previous, the unemployment rate for September is expected 6.35 vs 6.2% previous with a participation rate of 65%, same as previous. This would be an improvement in the past two months when the unemployment Rate in Australia decreased to 6.20 percent in August from 6.30 percent in July of 2015. The seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate decreased to 65.0 percent from 65.1 percent in July.

Australian jobs data background

The unemployment Rate in Australia averaged 6.96 percent from 1978 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 11.10 percent in October of 1992 and a record low of 4 percent in February of 2008. Unemployment Rate in Australia is reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

AUD/USD key levels to monitor

Technically, in the broader trend, while below the 200 DMA at 0.7594 the outlook remains bearish. However, a positive surprise to the jobs report would bring back the key 0.7380 resistance into sight.

Overnight had seen a test of the key 0.7200 level and the 200 SMA on the hourly chart. Closes below there, perhaps instigated from a bad jobs report, could open up the case for a test of the September low at 0.6940 ahead of the 0.6905 recent low and the 0.6774 2004 low.
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