Tuesday, October 6, 2015

RBA and other key events - Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events taking place today.

Key Quotes:

"This morning we saw the Aussie trade balance, which was far worse than expected at –AUD3.1bn in August, with a hefty downward revision to July; that should keep AUD on the back foot. Ideally, it should also keep the RBA, up shortly, on the front foot.

However, the Reserve Bank are proving cautious. To their credit, they have publicly stated that “the drugs don’t work,” but at the same time they have hardly indulged the patient to the same extent other central banks have: when will we see a 2% Fed Funds rate, for example? I still believe we have two more 25bp cuts to come in this RBA cycle, and maybe more, even if today does not give much of a clue on when the next will be.

After that we see German factory orders (consensus 0.5% m-o-m) and UK Halifax house prices (consensus: 0.1% m-o-m), before shifting to the US for the August trade balance, which is seen printing at –USD48.0bn, and a major drag in Q3 GDP if so.

The day also has some Fed- and ECB-talk (George, Draghi, and Williams); let’s ‘see what drugs they are on’ when they start speaking."
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