Friday, October 23, 2015

EUR/USD to test September lows – BBH

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman noted that Draghi confirmed today that the door of the European Central Bank is open for more easing at the next meeting, which is a negative factor for the EUR/USD.

Key Quotes:

“While there wasn’t anything truly surprising out of Draghi’s press conference today, his stance was perhaps more dovish than expected and confirmed that the door is wide open for action at the December 3 meeting”
“The market reaction went according to the script. The euro fell from $1.1350 to $1.1160, breaking both the 50- and 100-day moving averages, in the largest move since August in percent terms. German bund yields fell, with the 2-year yield at a record -0.316% and the 10-year yield at 0.517%.”

“It’s worth noting that the post-September 3 ECB meeting low for the euro was near $1.1085. Today alone, we've blasted through the 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the September-October bounce, and the euro has now retraced over 75% of that move. Test of that September low should be seen soon. Looking further ahead, break below the $1.1180 area sets up a test of the August 5 low near $1.0850.”

“The overarching strong dollar theme remains in play. As we have noted before, the dollar rally rests on two legs. The first leg was driven by central banks outside of the US easing policy. That is clearly ongoing, as this ECB meeting underscored."

“The second leg is driven by expectations of Fed tightening. That notion was pushed back with recent softness in the US data as well as heightened Fed concerns about China, but we continue to believe that the timing itself is not that vital. Whether the Fed lift-off begins in December or January or March, the direction seems clear even if the timing is not.”
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