Tuesday, October 20, 2015

EUR/USD: bearish case building ahead of ECB

FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1323 with a high of 1.1379 and a low of 1.1305.

EUR/USD is closing the US session on a downer having started out overnight from above the 200 SMA on the hourly chart at1.1375 and is barely keeping a presence on the 1.13 handle as we across to the early Asian shift. The lows were 1.1305 so there has a been a very minor recovery. The greenback has staged gains across the board while we head towards the ECB this week.

The balance is in favour of the US dollar, despite there being only about a 6% chance that the Fed will hike rates this month and much more weight towards March 2016 as time for lift-off, there are growing expectations that the ECB will start to verbally intervene and refrain from more QE just yet.

"Technical difficulties to step up QE and too many uncertainties about the future path of growth and inflation should motivate the ECB to postpone any decision on more QE. However, the past has shown several times that the ECB's ability to talk the talk without eventually having to walk the walk is rather limited," explained analysts at ING Bank.

Earlier we heard from ECB's Noyer as well who indicated that the ECB does not need to do more while QE is having the intended effect.

EUR/USD levels

Technically, EUR/USD is in a bearish cycle having failed last week at the 1.1440/72 band (May, June and September highs, the 55 week ma and the 2014-2015 downtrend). The 1.1260/51 cloud lows is now open for a testing and the September lows at 1.1105/1.1088 could come under pressure.
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