Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Chinese CPI for September preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been in supply since the trade data from China. While there was momentum in exports, the market still does not regard this as good enough with EM's being hit the worst and investors looking for safe havens, while the Antipodeans took the brunt of the sell-offs in Asia.

There have been 150 pips worth of profits taken off the table so far and 0.7198 was the low overnight with support coming in at the 200 SMA at 0.7193.

The Aussie is under pressure also from the recent announcements yesterday by Westpac to raise home loan rates by 0.2%, and if other banks catch on to that as a ploy to boost capital reserves, this would be potentially pressuring the RBA into submittal.

Chinese inflation expected to decrease

After a recent steady increases in Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) because of rising food prices, expectations today are for a decrease. The rate hit its highest level this year in August at 2.0% which was a further improvement on July at 1.6% vs 1.4% in June. The CPI for September year on year is expected at 1.8% vs 2.0% previous. Producer Prices year on year are expected -5.9% vs -5.9% as well.

China's central bank has cut interest rates four times since November last year in an effort to boost economic activity, but analysts at Westpac explained that these should not be particularly market sensitive, "with inflation neither the focus of nor a barrier to PBoC decisions."

AUD/USD: Key levels to monitor

AUD/USD is fragile and a bearish case has been mounting since the lofty heights just shy of the 0.74 handle. The Aussie is, after all, in a bearish trend broadly speaking below the 200 DMA at 0.7594 and bulls had a freakishly strong run against the odds on a nine day straight run of higher highs.

To the downside on further losses, the 200 SMA on the hourly time frame at 0.7193 is acting as current support and guards lower levels to the September low at 0.6940 ahead of the 0.6905 recent low and the 0.6774 2004 low.
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